The U.S. Physician Shortage
Changing demographics are forcing radical changes in the U.S. healthcare
industry.
U.S. medical schools have trained an average of 15,500 physicians a year since
1980, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
The population continues to grow: U.S. Census data shows a population increase
of 24% percent, from more than 226 million people in 1980 to more than 281
million people in 2000.
The U.S. physician shortage is growing.
Roughly 20 percent of the U.S. population lives in Rural
America, but only 11 percent of U.S. physicians practice there.
Recent studies indicate most hospitals (roughly 90 percent)
and a majority of medical practices (almost three-fourths) across the country
are recruiting physicians actively. According to a 2004 report by the American
Hospital Association (AHA), 89% of hospital chiefs reported significant physician shortages.
Experts project a shortage of 50,000 physicians by 2010. It
could grow to as many as 200,000 physicians by 2020.
The 2000 U.S. Census indicates the age-60-plus population
will have quadrupled by 2010.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
reports that the population 75 age years and older will exceed the population
65 to 74 years old by 2040.
According to the CDC report “ Health, United
States, 2004,” about 12%, or 1 in 8 Americans, will be
age 75 or older by the year 2050.
People are living longer: In 2002 the expectancy of life at
birth was 77.3.
The rate of doctor visits begins increasing noticeably at
age 45: Americans ages 45 to 64 averaged 3.5 visits per year, while those
between ages 65 and 75 averaged 5.5 visits per year in 1997.
Older Americans use medical services at a considerably
higher rate than younger people. Americans age 75 and older averaged almost
three times the number of medical office visits per year (6.5) than those ages
25 to 44 (2.4) in 1997, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health
Statistics.
Coupled with advances in medical science and technology, an
aging population is increasing the rate of surgeries in the United States.
“One study found that people 76 and older recovered more slowly than
younger patients after heart bypass surgery,” according to a May 9, 2005
report by Associated Press. “But one year later, the improvements they
felt in pain relief and quality of life were the same as for younger
patients.”
A 2003 study published in the Annals of Surgery predicted
a 14-percent increase in surgery volume by 2010 and a 47-percent increase by
2020.
Imaging technology unimaginable even a decade ago is
facilitating earlier detection and uncovering new disorders or irregularities
that, more and more often, can be treated by an expanding array of specialists
and sub-specialists—many already in short supply.
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